Sterling advances early in the week, but will Bank of England “Super Thursday” quash these gains?

The Pound ticked higher on Tuesday with the return of UK traders following a long bank holiday weekend which boosted trading volumes. However, the Pound is currently facing hurdles, most notably the latest release of UK housing data which slumped 3.1% in April – the fastest monthly fall in almost a decade. Following a string of soft data, including poor GDP figures, the poor housing release is likely to be the nail in the coffin for a hike in UK interest rates. Markets are pricing a 10% chance that the Bank of England will raise UK interest rates tomorrow (down from 90% a month ago). Despite the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged, it would be a mistake to write off tomorrow's BOE meeting as a done deal. Markets will be listening closely to Mark Carney’s tone and any path he outlines for the future of UK interest rates. If Carney suggests interest rates will remain unchanged for the long-term the Pound will likely weaken, if Carney suggests a hike is on the cards in the coming months the Pound will likely strengthen. Carney truly has the power to send the Pound rocketing or spiralling tomorrow. We say GBP/EUR is best value today and we think the Pound could fall from its current post-bank holiday glow.